Thunderstorm chances will increase on Friday across portions of Texas as an upper level system moves into the region. Southerly winds and a developing low level jet on Friday will advect moisture into portions of Southern Texas. The shortwave moving into the region will provide forcing and allow for the potential for thunderstorm development Friday evening. Large hail will be the main concern, but a tornado threat cannot be ruled out.

On Saturday, the thunderstorm potential begins to shift east into Eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley as the main upper level system continues to dig into Southern Texas. Storms will initially develop as discrete cells, but over time will grow into a complex and move across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Initially, large hail will be the main threat. However, as these storms evolve into a squall line, damaging winds will become the primary hazard with an isolated tornado risk.

SPC Convective Outlooks for Friday and Saturday